Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models.
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7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring.
7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability.
Stay or Switch
A retelling of the classic Monty Hall problem. Andrew and Li are watching the show and discussing the contestant's choices. Is it best to switch to an alternative door or stay with your initial choice? The experiment will provide them with the answer. Do you stay or switch?
Required Materials: 3 cups per group and a toy car (or anything that can represent the car). Another option is using lego doors or anything else that can hide the prize from the contestant.
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7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events.
Newborns
James and Nia’s friend Sara is pregnant with her third daughter. Nia assumes someone has a 50 percent chance, but James thinks it must be lower, because he doesn’t know many people with 3 girls. They decide to make a list and do an experiment using coins or dice.
Required Materials: 1 die and/or 1 coin per group.
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7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.
Marbles
A. Alberto plays a prediction game at a carnival. He has to predict which 3 marbles he will draw from a jar in a particular order. What prediction should he make that will give him the highest chance of winning?
B. Alberto plays a prediction game at a carnival. He has to predict which 3 marbles he will draw from a jar in no particular order. What prediction should he make that will give him the highest chance of winning?
Extension: Can you calculate how much Sara and Andrew will have to charge each contestant to make a profit?
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